2021 NBA Draft Analytics

Probabilistic Draft Modeling

Jesse Fischer • July 31, 2021
Photo: jacqui.brown33

Anyone who has analyzed historical NBA draft picks should know that translating success to the NBA is never a sure thing. No matter how good the scout, GM, or draft model, there is still a high level of uncertainty involved in predicting NBA success.

My goal is to highlight this uncertainty. By putting less emphasis on a single number, and more emphasis on a probabilistic range of outcomes, our evaluation of players can be more representative of the roll of the dice that NBA teams face.

NBA Draft Model

If you want to learn more about the machine learning behind these projections - check out last year's post as well as this Twitter thread which went over model changes for this year. You might also be interested in this Twitter thread where I shared real-time insight on players as they were drafted.

Follow me on Twitter if you find this interesting!

2021 Results

Top 2021

2021 Draft Picks

Picks 2021

Here you can find historical (out of sample) projections for the last several draft classes: 2018 | 2019 | 2020

Player Profiles

Select a player to see a player draft profile including:

  • Statistical Profile - visualize the strengths, weaknesses, and growth trajectory of individual players over their college careers
  • Playing Style Comps - find the most similar player seasons compared to the potential draftees most recent season, which can keep you honest on a players expected outcome

Alperen Sengun

Besiktas Sompo Japan | INTL | C | 6-9 | 235 | 18.8 | wingspan: 7-0 | realgm

Statistical Profile

Playing Style Comps

Draft Model Comparison

See here for links to the various models.